Sensible article from The Economist on the slow initial effect of radical innovation:
“In general, a very good way to underestimate the potential impact of a new innovation is to consider its possible contributions all other things equal, that is, assuming that nothing in the economy changes to accommodate or complement the new discovery…
A truly revolutionary new technology rarely has an enormous immediate impact. It’s influence unfolds slowly but powerfully as its reshapes society.
…consider that trinket the smartphone. It has only been in the last two years or so that half or more of the rich world has begun wandering the streets carrying a powerful, networked handheld computer at all times. In that short period, humanity has come up with some nifty uses for such things. But these are a scratch on the surface of the possible. Only in time—as new business models are created and technology improves and norms change—will be begin to understand and exploit the possibilities of so much distributed, mobile, connected information-gathering capacity and processing power.”